The long tail effect of photovoltaics shows that the long-term prospects of the global market are promising


The PV on-grid price will be introduced, and the domestic market will start quickly: the National Development and Reform Commission will launch a PV on-grid price on August 1, and the domestic PV industry development mechanism will undergo major changes. Previously, it mainly subsidized the photovoltaic industry through concession bidding and Golden Sun Engineering. In the future, it will adopt a market-oriented mechanism to promote the development of the photovoltaic industry. Germany introduced the on-grid tariff method in 2000, and the growth rate of newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 230%. It is expected that the domestic PV industry will also achieve rapid growth. The northwestern region is rich in sunshine. At present, the on-grid price is higher than the bid price of the concession bidding last year. With the decline of component cost, the domestic photovoltaic power station can achieve meager profit. It is expected that the power group will increase its investment enthusiasm. In addition, the photovoltaic power station has good output characteristics and peak power generation. The peak year of electricity is small, and the impact on power grid peaking and power grid is small, and it is easy to access. European policy tends to be stable, the long-tail effect of the photovoltaic market is emerging, and the long-term prospects for the global PV market are promising. In the first half of the year, the German and Italian PV subsidy reduction policies were uncertain, resulting in stagnant installed capacity and sharply shrinking demand. The current German and Italian policies have been determined, and with the sharp decline in component prices in the first half of the year, the Italian PV power plant returns to 20%, Germany also It will reach about 10%, and it is expected that the installation demand will improve in the second half of the year. The long tail effect of the PV market is emerging, and PV demand in China, the US, Japan and some other emerging markets will grow rapidly, changing the situation in Europe in the past by more than 80%. According to the EPIA, it is expected that by 2015, the global installed capacity will reach 44GW, and the long-term prospects for the PV market are promising. The competition pattern of the photovoltaic industry chain: the concentration of polysilicon will increase, and the replacement of photovoltaic equipment will continue. At present, polysilicon production capacity continues to expand. It is estimated that the total production capacity of GCL, OCI, Wacker and Hemlock will reach 200,000 tons by the top four manufacturers in 2012, exceeding the annual demand of 170,000 tons in 2010. With the expansion of polysilicon leading capacity expansion, The concentration of polysilicon industry in the future may continue to increase. The battery and component industry has low entry barriers and serious product homogenization. At present, overcapacity may take 2-3 years to digest; photovoltaic equipment single crystal furnace has been fully realized, and the yield of polycrystalline silicon ingot furnace is gradually increasing. Single crystal technology is also being developed and tested, and it is expected to be localized in the future.

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